rightsun blogspot.com

Celine Rights BLOG

Celine and Rights BLOG. This is a blog which records our life especially about foods. 星期三, 11月 07, 2012. 最近不管是因為醫學資料上的原因, 或者投資數據上的原因, 都看了一些統計數據. 統計數據, 必須是拿來顛覆理論用的. 不是證明理論用的. 也就是說, 你先大膽假設一個理論, 然後透過統計來看有沒有反例. 因為既然是理論, 就應該有因果性. 比方, 每次狗吠, 郵差就會走掉. 統計結果能夠證明,郵差走是因為狗吠嗎? 不能, 因為你會找到反例 沒有狗, 郵差也會走. 郵差走是因為他送完信了, 或者剛好經過. 比方, 雄中的升學率高, 所以考上雄中的學生, 就比較容易考上大學錯了, 這種一言以蔽之的說法, 會誤導. 真正的原因可能是考上雄中的學生確實資質較好, 雄中的環境確實較容易有讀書氣氛, etc. 所以, 以相關性來做重大決策的判斷準則, 是不理性的.ㄢ. 星期一, 10月 10, 2011. 8221;愛, 是把自己的感受說給對方聽. 誰都需要浪漫, 而這是一種, 必須的美好.

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Celine Rights BLOG

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Celine and Rights BLOG. This is a blog which records our life especially about foods. 星期三, 11月 07, 2012. 最近不管是因為醫學資料上的原因, 或者投資數據上的原因, 都看了一些統計數據. 統計數據, 必須是拿來顛覆理論用的. 不是證明理論用的. 也就是說, 你先大膽假設一個理論, 然後透過統計來看有沒有反例. 因為既然是理論, 就應該有因果性. 比方, 每次狗吠, 郵差就會走掉. 統計結果能夠證明,郵差走是因為狗吠嗎? 不能, 因為你會找到反例 沒有狗, 郵差也會走. 郵差走是因為他送完信了, 或者剛好經過. 比方, 雄中的升學率高, 所以考上雄中的學生, 就比較容易考上大學錯了, 這種一言以蔽之的說法, 會誤導. 真正的原因可能是考上雄中的學生確實資質較好, 雄中的環境確實較容易有讀書氣氛, etc. 所以, 以相關性來做重大決策的判斷準則, 是不理性的.ㄢ. 星期一, 10月 10, 2011. 8221;愛, 是把自己的感受說給對方聽. 誰都需要浪漫, 而這是一種, 必須的美好.

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This web page rightsun.blogspot.com states the following, "This is a blog which records our life especially about foods." We saw that the webpage said " 星期三, 11月 07, 2012." It also said " 最近不管是因為醫學資料上的原因, 或者投資數據上的原因, 都看了一些統計數據. 也就是說, 你先大膽假設一個理論, 然後透過統計來看有沒有反例. 比方, 每次狗吠, 郵差就會走掉. 統計結果能夠證明,郵差走是因為狗吠嗎? 不能, 因為你會找到反例 沒有狗, 郵差也會走. 比方, 雄中的升學率高, 所以考上雄中的學生, 就比較容易考上大學錯了, 這種一言以蔽之的說法, 會誤導. 真正的原因可能是考上雄中的學生確實資質較好, 雄中的環境確實較容易有讀書氣氛, etc. 所以, 以相關性來做重大決策的判斷準則, 是不理性的. 星期一, 10月 10, 2011. 誰都需要浪漫, 而這是一種, 必須的美好."

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